Question:
How might climate change affect life expectancy across the generations?
Answer:
There are likely to be stark generational differences.
Climate change isn’t just about rising temperatures and extreme weather; it could reshape how long we might expect to live. In our recent Still Hot and Bothered?, publication, we explored how climate change could influence future longevity patterns in the UK under three plausible scenarios:
- Rapid response – a swift and effective global response to climate change.
- Turbulent times – some adaptation but progress is too slow to fully offset the impacts already locked into the system.
- Sustained stagnation – limited adaptation and mitigation lead to severe global consequences.
The chart below shows the impact on cohort life expectancy at age 65 under each scenario. This allows for the impacts of climate change over an individual’s lifetime.
Impact on cohort life expectancy at age 65 (relative to a typical projection1)
Stark differences emerge across the generations.
For Baby Boomers already in, or approaching, retirement, the gap between our most optimistic and most pessimistic scenario is about 4 years. This limited variability reflects their shorter exposure to severe climate risks (such as prolonged heatwaves and emerging diseases) and the fact that they won’t fully benefit from positive shifts like cleaner energy and healthier diets.
Gen Z, however, faces a far more uncertain future. By the time they retire in the 2060s, the gap could stretch to 13 years – a dramatic swing that could redefine ageing expectations. Under our most optimistic scenario, longevity could rise by almost 4 years, thanks to technological innovation, public awareness and decisive legislative action. Under our most pessimistic scenario, however, life expectancy could fall by around 9 years, signalling harsher environments, greater health risks and mounting strain on healthcare systems.
Key takeaways
- Climate change could significantly affect life expectancy, especially for younger generations.
- Baby Boomers may experience relatively modest changes in life expectancy, while Gen Z faces much wider uncertainty.
- Climate policy decisions today will shape health and longevity outcomes for many decades to come.
The key question is:
How should pension plans and (re)insurers incorporate climate uncertainty and its impact on longevity into long-term planning?
1. Impacts are shown relative to the ‘typical projection’ which is based on the core CMI 2024 model with a long-term rate of 1.5% p.a.